Trading For A Living

On Friday the FTSE 100 closed up just 2 points at 4,236 gaining support from 4,220. Wall Street was closed on Friday because of the Independence Day celebrations. The DAX in Germany closed down 10 points at 4,708. Forex news: Last week ended with dollar strong across the board and especially the euro, as the pair fell below important 1.40, amid renewed worries about the state of global economy and the so called recovery.  Today, USD high news at 3pm with ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NZD business confidence. High news at 11pm.

Yesterday the FTSE closed down 106 points at 4,234, and fell heavily because of poor NFP figures. There is a support line forming at 4,215.The Dow closed down 225 points at 8,280 and is resting just above a support line forming at 8,240. The S&P closed down 27 points at 896 and closed under the 50ema. Forex news:  Unemployment in the Euro Zone and the US have reached a parity, both are now at 9.5%.  USD and JPY gained against major currencies yesterday, as weak job market data from the US and Europe led to increased investor risk aversion.  Key economic releases today, include the releases of service sector activity data from the UK at 9:30am.  Also today is a bank holiday in the US.

Yesterday the FTSE 100 closed up 91 points at 4,340 breaking through minor resistance. The price is now mid-way between the 2 major moving averages. The Dow closed up 57 points at 8,504 and in doing so closed above the key level of 8,500. The Dow is now starting to form a small consolidation between her major moving averages.Forex news:  USD is supported by comments from Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei, who stated that the dollar would “remain stable,” easing concern it will lose its reserve status.  Overall, high yielding and emerging market currencies are trading lower against the USD and JPY, as investors remained cautious ahead of the release of US non-farm payroll data, resulting in higher demand for safe haven assets. At 12:45pm, EUR Minimum bid rate followed by ECB press conference at 1:30pm and the big one, Non Farm Payroll at 1:30pm.  We will  not place any trades today.

Yesterday the FTSE closed down 44 points at 4,249 and is looking like is forming in a little channel between 4,300 and 4,215. The Dow closed down 84 points at 8,446, gaining support from 8,400 and the 50ema. Forex news: In high news today GBP manufacturing PMI at 9:30am.  USD ADP Non-Farm employment change at 1:15pm and ISM Manufacturing PMI at 3pm could create high volatility as preliminary results to Non-Farm payroll due to be released tomorrow, a day early as Friday is bank holiday in the US.  We will not place any trades today and tomorrow.

On Friday the FTSE 100 closed down 12 points at 4,241. On Friday the Dow fell 34.01 points (0.4 %) to 8,438.39. The S&P 500 index fell 1.36 (0.2%) to 918.90. Technology stocks did a little better so the Nasdaq rose 8.68 (0.5%) to 1,838.22 led by Palm Inc the smart phone maker. The US markets were largely unaffected by the UoM Consumer Sentiment Index which rose unexpectedly on Friday but was balanced out by the news that US citizens have increased their savings sharply which in the short term will not support hopes for GDP growth. On the one hand the market may have pushed up too quickly since March (35.8% rally in the S&P 500 from a 12-year low on March 9) and in fact an economic recovery may be further away than hoped initially.  However, keep in mind that Tuesday is the end of the quarter; portfolio and fund managers may be keen to take the stock markets higher to bolster their performance numbers for the quarter. Forex news:  No high news today.  The British Pound stuck to its range for another week, failing to breach the magical 1.6660 line. This week’s key British events: Nationwide HPI, Current Account, Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and American Non-Farm Payrolls could well shake the Pound.

Yesterday the FTSE 100 closed down 27 points at 4,252 continuing the uncertain week. A mild support level is forming at 4,420, and resistance is being encountered at 4,300. It will be interesting to see if this level of resistance holds because it has proved to be a good level of support over recent weeks. Yesterday the Dow Jones rose 172.54 points (2.1%). The S&P 500 index rose 19.32 points (2.1%) to 920.26.  Positive US corporate news in the Housebuilding and Retail sectors helped traders overlook the unexpected increases in US unemployment benefit claimants. Investors have been dissecting economic and corporate data for signs of whether the economy is starting to recover or whether a stock market rally that began in March was premature. There seems to be a strong underlying sentiment in the market. In the Forex market, huge volume makes even big interventions very hard. The SNB’s (CHF) intervention had a short lived effect last time, and this time is no different - the correction will come. No high news today. Enjoy!

Yesterday the FTSE 100 closed up 50 at 4,250. Yesterday the Dow Jones fell 23.05 (0.3%) to 8,299.86, falling four days running and a cumulative loss of 3%. The S&P 500 index rose 5.84 (0.7%) to 900.94, clearing the 900 mark for the first time this week. The Nasdaq rose 27.42 (1.6%) to 1,792.34 following higher than expected earnings from Oracle Corp. US base rates were left unchanged at 0.25% in last nights eagerly awaited FOMC statement. There were no real surprises and indications that the Fed would not step up its spending to purchase Treasuries and other debt to push interest rates lower as the view is that the US economy is stabilizing and on the mend. The FOMC statement last night hinted that rates would remain unchanged in the US. USD is trading lower against major currencies today, amid improving investor interest towards high yielding assets.  The Confederation of British Industry reported that UK June retail sales volume remained unchanged from the previous month, in line with market expectations. Today is the BIG unemployment claims high news at 1:30pm and at 3pm Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies.

Yesterday the FTSE 100 closed down just 4 points at 4,230 and forming a High-Test bar. Yesterday the Dow Jones fell 16.10 points (or 0.2%) to 8,322.91. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 2.06 (0.2%), to 895.10, and the Nasdaq fell 1.27 points (0.1 percent) to 1,764.92. The market is nervous and watching closely at all US Govt debt auctions looking for signs that the market appetite for US Government debt is waning. Another $104 billion is expected to be auctioned this week. Also watch out for the Feds interest rate decision (expected to remain unchanged), but more importantly, the Feds economic assessment that accompanies the rate decision. Questions about future inflation also still loom. Big day today in the forex market - the FOMC Statement is made. What will Bernanke hint about future interest rates? Apart from tensions towards the statement, the market will move on other important figures.  At 11am GBP high news with CBI realized sales followed by Inflation report hearings at 2:30pm and BOE Gov King speaks at 3:45pm.  Then at 3pm USD New home sales and at 7:15pm FOMC statement and federal funds rate.  If you are in live position at that time, be wary of high volatility.

Yesterday the FTSE 100 closed down 111 to close at 4,234. Stock indexes fell by more than 2 percent yesterday, sending the after the World Bank estimated the global economy will shrink 2.9 percent in 2009. It had previously predicted a 1.7 percent contraction. Hopes of recovery receded. The Dow fell 200.72 (2.4%) to 8,339.01, its lowest finish since May 27. It was the biggest drop for the blue chips. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 28.19 (3.1%) to 893.04, also leaving the index with its biggest slide since April 20 and erasing its advance for the year. Forex news:  Economic indicators gear up today with many European PMI figures but the American Existing Home Sales is the high news for the day at 3pm. After a strong start for the dollar, tension rises towards Wednesday’s FOMC Statement. The escalation in Iran also supports the greenback.

On Friday the FTSE 100 closed up 66 points at 4,345. Positive news from the Mining Sector buoyed the index. More good news was released over the weekend so the FTSE may rally today. On Friday the Dow Jones fell 15.87 (0.2 %) to 8,539.73, with just over half of its 30 stocks posting losses. The S&P 500 index rose 2.86 (0.3%) to 921.23 and the Nasdaq gained 19.75 (1.1%) to 1,827.47. The stock market consensus seems to be one of caution and consolidation rather than a continuing rally this summer. All the major indexes closed the week down on Friday for the first time since the second week of May.